(Bloomberg/Kara Carlson) Tesla Inc. ended last year on a roll, with investors increasingly buying into Elon Musks ebullience about autonomous vehicles. Winning over actual car buyers was another story.
Shares in the worlds most valuable auto company soared in the second half, largely on the basis of its chief executive officer touting advances in artificial intelligence and robotics. But the progress Musk trumpeted didnt translate to success in showrooms the company likely sold fewer vehicles in the last six months than a year earlier, despite record deliveries in the third quarter.
On Friday, Tesla is expected to report that it delivered around 440,900 vehicles in the fourth quarter, down 11% from a year earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Tesla took the unusual step this week of publishing its own average of analyst estimates that was even more pessimistic, calling for a 15% decline.
Wall Street has grown similarly gloomy about the outlook for 2026. This time two years ago, analysts were predicting Tesla would deliver more than 3 million vehicles. That average estimate for deliveries this year has plunged to roughly 1.8 million.
Tesla investors are focused on how the company might look five, 10, 15 years down the road, and really discounting what they see in the near term, Garrett Nelson, an equity analyst at CFRA Research, said by phone. The question is, can they maintain that, especially when we think headwinds are going to become more apparent in the financials?
Topsy-Turvy
Even by the standards of Musk and Tesla two names synonymous with turbulence 2025 was a tumultuous year.
The carmakers vehicle sales got off to a dismal start, partly due to the company retooling production lines at each of its auto plants for the redesigned Model Y, its most popular vehicle. Another major factor was the intense backlash against its CEOs work for US President Donald Trump.
By early April, when Musk was publicly feuding with members of the administration over tariff policy, Teslas stock had plummeted 45% for the year.
Musk spurred the recovery by stepping back from government and returning to work on a longtime goal: starting a ride-hailing business with cars hes said will eventually be autonomous.
In June, Tesla launched an invite-only Robotaxi service in Austin, with safety operators on board to supervise each of the Model Ys ferrying Musk fans around the Texas capital. While the vehicles violated traffic laws on day one drawing the attention of a federal regulator thats opened multiple investigations into the companys driving systems investors have shrugged off the safety concerns.
Teslas board then proposed a new compensation package for Musk in September, offering a payout potentially worth $1 trillion depending on milestones including delivering millions of robotaxis. Soon after, the comeback was complete Tesla shares were trading higher for the year.
When the stock closed at a new all-time high on Dec. 16, the company had added more than $915 billion in market capitalization in just over eight months.
Needing Convincing
But while Teslas robotaxi prospects have captivated investors, car buyers have been relatively circumspect.
Musk himself has acknowledged challenges persuading consumers to purchase what Tesla markets as Full Self-Driving, or FSD, a suite of features that still require human supervision. Allegations that Tesla is misleading Californians by exaggerating the automated-driving capabilities of its vehicles could lead to the state suspending the companys sales license for 30 days early this year.
Teslas attempt to distinguish itself in Chinas crowded electric vehicle market with driver-assistance functions also isnt working out, with companies including BYD Co. and Xiaomi Corp. offering similar systems as standard features.
Due largely to BYDs far higher sales in China and surge of momentum in Europe where Tesla has been unable to obtain regulatory approval for FSD analysts expect the Shenzhen-based carmaker to have sold more battery-electric vehicles worldwide for a fifth quarter in a row.
Moving Forward
After a widely anticipated annual sales decline its second in a row Tesla has more hurdles to contend with in 2026. The US has ceased offering federal tax credits for EV purchases and leases, which Musk has warned could lead to a few rough quarters.
Some see a silver lining in the withdrawal of US policy support, which has led major manufacturers to pull back from EV investments. Ford Motor Co. said last month it expects to record about $19.5 billion in charges tied to abandoning EV and battery projects that were destined to lose money.
Musk ended the year by building anticipation for Cybercab, a two-seat compact car with butterfly doors. While the prototype he first unveiled in late 2024 lacked a steering wheel or pedals, Teslas board chair Robyn Denholm told Bloomberg News in October that the company will sell the car with those components if required by regulators.
Investors have fully bought into his autonomous vision, which comes at a good time, as Teslas EV business will likely be flat to up 5 percent next year, said Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management. At this point, Elon only needs the car business to stabilize over the next year to satisfy investors.
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（彭博社/卡拉·卡尔森）特斯拉公司在去年年底势头强劲，投资者越来越认同埃隆·马斯克对自动驾驶汽车的乐观态度。但要赢得实际购车者的青睐，则是另一回事了。
全球市值最高的汽车公司股价在下半年大幅上涨，主要得益于其首席执行官埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）对人工智能和机器人技术进展的宣传。然而，马斯克所鼓吹的进步并未转化为展厅的成功——尽管第三季度交付量创下纪录，但该公司过去六个月的汽车销量可能仍低于去年同期水平。
据彭博社汇编的数据显示，特斯拉预计将于周五报告称，其第四季度交付量约为44.09万辆，同比下降11%。本周特斯拉采取了不同寻常的举措，自行发布了分析师预估的平均值，该数据更为悲观，预计降幅将达到15%。
华尔街对2026年的前景同样持悲观态度。两年前的此时，分析师们曾预测特斯拉的汽车交付量将超过300万辆。而今年，这一平均交付量预估已骤降至约180万辆。
CFRA研究公司的股票分析师加勒特·纳尔逊（Garrett Nelson）在电话采访中表示：“特斯拉的投资者更关注公司未来5年、10年乃至15年的发展前景，而实际上低估了近期的表现。问题在于，他们能否保持这种长期视角，尤其是当我们认为财务方面的不利因素将变得更加明显时？”
颠倒混乱
即便以马斯克和特斯拉——这两个与动荡同义的名称——的标准来看，2025年也是波澜起伏的一年。
这家汽车制造商的销量开局惨淡，部分原因是该公司为重新设计其最受欢迎的车型Model Y，对旗下各汽车工厂的生产线进行了改造。另一个重要因素是其首席执行官为美国总统唐纳德·特朗普工作所引发的强烈反弹。
截至4月初，当马斯克因关税政策与政府官员公开争执时，特斯拉股价年内已暴跌45%。
马斯克通过退出政府事务并回归长期目标推动了复苏：创办一家使用他声称最终将实现自动驾驶的汽车的网约车业务。
6月，特斯拉在奥斯汀推出了仅限受邀用户参与的Robotaxi（自动驾驶出租车）服务，每辆Model Y都配备安全操作员监督车辆运行，搭载马斯克的粉丝们穿梭于得州首府。尽管运营首日这些车辆就因违反交通法规引发联邦监管机构注意（该机构已对特斯拉的驾驶系统展开多项调查），但投资者对这些安全隐患并不在意。
特斯拉董事会随后于9月为埃隆·马斯克提出新的薪酬方案，根据包括交付数百万辆自动驾驶出租车在内的里程碑，其潜在价值可能高达1万亿美元。此后不久，特斯拉股价回升完成——全年交易价格走高。
12月16日，该公司股价收盘创下历史新高，短短八个多月内市值增长超过9150亿美元。
需要说服
尽管特斯拉的自动驾驶出租车前景令投资者着迷，但购车者却相对谨慎。
马斯克本人已承认，说服消费者购买特斯拉宣传的"全自动驾驶"（FSD）功能套装存在挑战，该功能目前仍需人工监督。有指控称特斯拉通过夸大其车辆的自动驾驶能力误导加州消费者，这可能导致该州在今年初暂停该公司销售牌照30天。
特斯拉试图通过驾驶辅助功能在中国拥挤的电动汽车市场中脱颖而出，但这一策略并未奏效。比亚迪公司和小米集团等企业已将类似系统作为标准配置提供。
由于比亚迪在中国市场的销量遥遥领先，并在欧洲势头迅猛（特斯拉在该地区尚未获得全自动驾驶监管批准），分析师预计这家总部位于深圳的车企已连续第五个季度在全球范围内售出更多纯电动汽车。
前进
在经历连续第二年销量下滑——这一结果已被广泛预期——之后，特斯拉在2026年将面临更多挑战。美国已停止为电动汽车购买和租赁提供联邦税收抵免，埃隆·马斯克警告称，这可能导致"几个艰难的季度"。
在美国政策支持退出的背景下，部分人士看到了积极的一面——此举促使各大制造商缩减了电动汽车领域的投资。福特汽车公司上月表示，预计将计提约195亿美元费用，用于终止注定亏损的电动汽车及电池项目。
马斯克在年末为Cybercab这款双座紧凑型汽车（配备鸥翼门）造势。尽管他在2024年底首次展示的原型车未配备方向盘或踏板，但特斯拉董事会主席罗宾·德霍姆10月向彭博新闻社表示，若监管机构要求，公司将保留这些组件进行销售。
深水资产管理公司管理合伙人吉恩·芒斯特表示：“投资者已完全接受马斯克的自动驾驶愿景，这一时机恰到好处，因为特斯拉电动汽车业务明年的增长预计将在0%至5%之间。就目前而言，埃隆只需让汽车业务在未来一年保持稳定，就能让投资者满意。”
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2026年彭博有限合伙企业
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