By Jordan Fitzgerald, Bloomberg
After hearing Tesla Inc. s seemingly countless promises about artificial intelligence, autonomous driving and robotics , Wall Street wants the company to start putting its money where its mouth is.
Elon Musks electric-vehicle maker has spent just $2.5 billion of the $25 billion in 2026 capital expenditures it forecast in April. The slow pace raises questions about whether Teslas spending enough to deliver the progress that AI-hungry investors are eager to see.
Its a capital-intensive industry, said Jay Van Sciver, partner and managing director at Hedgeye Risk Management. Theres no way they can actually get from A to B spending less.
This puts the company on a completely different trajectory than most other tech giants, whose stocks are being punished when their AI spending is considered too profligate. For Tesla, on the other hand, an uptick in capital expenditures in its earnings report Wednesday afternoon and a higher outlook for AI outlays from management would likely give the shares a boost by signaling that the firms product development is moving in the right direction.
For a growth stock, capex is the best indication you have of future growth, said HSBC analyst Mike Tyndall, who has a sell rating on the stock. If youre not spending the money, then youre not going to get the growth.
Capex is a credibility check for companies like Tesla that sell long-term visions, according to Haris Khurshid, chief investment officer at Karobaar Capital, which owns Tesla stock through derivatives. But the reality is Musks track record is littered with missed deadlines and abandoned projects. Investors know this, which is why they want to start seeing signs of tangible progress.
Im less focused on any single number but rather seeing if the overall story is becoming more internally consistent, Khurshid said. Do the capex, management commentary and timelines all point in the same direction? Thats what separates a compelling vision from a compelling investment.
Four of Teslas Magnificent Seven peers Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Meta Platforms Inc. and Microsoft Corp. have forecast a combined $725 billion in capital expenditures in 2026 alone. Their stocks have taken a hit at one point or another over spending concerns as investors want to see bigger payoffs from those investments. By comparison, Teslas $25 billion annual capex forecast looks conservative, but its shares havent benefited from it, falling 18% in 2026 for the worst performance among the group as of Mondays close. Tesla stock rose021.6%02Tuesday as the S&P 500 advanced.
I dont have a huge problem that they havent spent the money yet, said Brian Mulberry at Zacks Investment Management, which owns Tesla stock. But this is one of those input costs that could change the dynamic of overall earnings per share down the road if they dont get it done soon and dont manage the cost structure properly.
To be fair, the products Tesla is developing are fundamentally different from what other Big Tech firms are doing. Theyre primarily focused on expanding cloud-computing capacity and building AI services. Tesla is focused on the physical side of AI, pitching a future of self-driving cars and robot butlers.
The question isnt whos spending more, its whether the spending is moving the company to the future its promising, said Karobaars Khurshid.
The thing is, Teslas stock is priced as if that future is here already. At roughly 163 times earnings over the next 12 months, its the second-most expensive company in the S&P 500 Index and by far the priciest member of the Mag Seven, with the next closest being Apple Inc. at about 34 times forward earnings. The S&P 500 trades at about 20 times earnings as of Mondays close.
Tesla is expected to report net income of $1.2 billion in the second quarter, up 2.7% from a year ago, on revenue of $26 billion, a 17% increase from the same period a year earlier. Meanwhile, the overall EV environment remains cloudy. Although the company saw blowout second-quarter vehicle deliveries, investors sold the news, sending the shares tumbling 7.5% on July 2 for their worst day in a year.
Theres a lot less reason to believe in Tesla, I think now than there ever was, said David Trainer, chief executive officer of the technology research firm New Constructs. The core business is going and competing in an extremely capital-intensive area against super companies that were already profitable and are willing to go unprofitable.
The pressure on Tesla to keep its promises has ratcheted up since Musks other company, Space Exploration Technologies Corp., or SpaceX, went public last month. If Tesla earnings fail to meet high expectations, SpaceXs ambitions to colonize Mars and operate orbital data centers are likely to look more exciting to Musk fans. SpaceX is scheduled to report its results on Aug. 4.
Already, speculation about a merger between the two companies is swirling based on their existing points of connection from Musks shared ownership, to Teslas stake in the now SpaceX-owned xAI, to the firms Terafab chip fabrication joint venture. SpaceX has high aspirations for AI and is busy raising cash through its landmark $75 billion IPO and a subsequent $25 billion bond sale.
Teslas ability to execute on robots and robotaxis, therefore, could determine whether it will remain independent in the future.
A publicly traded SpaceX forces Tesla to have tighter timelines with real deliverables, said Max Gokhman at Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions. I dont think investors will be patient on missed release dates or empty promises like they were before there was a clear way to play the Elon Mars shot.
More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com
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彭博社，乔丹·菲茨杰拉德（Jordan Fitzgerald）报道
在听够了特斯拉公司关于人工智能、自动驾驶和机器人技术似乎数不清的承诺后，华尔街希望该公司能开始兑现承诺。
埃隆·马斯克旗下的电动汽车制造商特斯拉在2026年资本支出预算中仅花费了25亿美元中的25亿，这一数字是该公司在4月份预测的。支出进度缓慢引发质疑：特斯拉是否投入足够资金以实现渴望看到人工智能进展的投资者们所期待的发展。
Hedgeye风险管理公司合伙人兼董事总经理杰伊·范·斯西弗表示：“这是一个资本密集型行业，他们绝不可能在减少支出的情况下实现从A到B的跨越。”
这使得该公司与大多数其他科技巨头走上了截然不同的发展道路——当这些巨头的人工智能支出被认为过于挥霍时，其股价便会受到打压。而对特斯拉而言，周三下午财报中资本支出的增加以及管理层对人工智能支出预期的上调，很可能通过释放公司产品开发方向正确的信号，从而推动股价上涨。
汇丰银行分析师迈克·廷德尔（Mike Tyndall）表示："对于成长型股票而言，资本支出是衡量未来增长潜力的最佳指标。"他给予该股票卖出评级，并补充道："若不投入资金，就难以实现增长。"
卡拉巴尔资本首席投资官哈里斯·库尔希德表示，资本支出对特斯拉这类兜售长期愿景的企业而言是可信度检验。该机构通过衍生品持有特斯拉股票。但现实是，马斯克的过往记录充斥着项目延期和计划流产。投资者心知肚明，正因如此他们才希望看到实质性进展的迹象。
库尔希德表示："我并不太关注单一数据，而是更看重整体叙事是否更具内在一致性。资本支出、管理层评述和时间规划是否都指向同一方向？这才是区分动人愿景与可靠投资的关键所在。"
特斯拉所在的"七巨头"中，有四家公司——Alphabet（谷歌母公司）、亚马逊、Meta（原Facebook）和微软——预计仅2026年的资本支出总额就将达到7250亿美元。由于投资者希望看到这些投资带来更大回报，这些公司的股票都曾因支出问题而不同程度受挫。相比之下，特斯拉250亿美元的年度资本支出预测显得较为保守，但其股价并未因此受益，截至周一收盘，特斯拉股价在2026年累计下跌18%，成为该集团中表现最差的个股。周二，随着标普500指数上涨，特斯拉股价反弹1.6%。
“我对他们尚未动用这笔资金并没有太大意见，”持有特斯拉股票的扎克斯投资管理公司分析师布莱恩·马尔伯里表示，“但若不能尽快妥善完成并控制成本结构，这类投入成本可能会在未来改变整体每股收益的动态走势。”
平心而论，特斯拉开发的产品与其他科技巨头的方向存在本质差异。后者主要致力于扩展云计算能力和构建人工智能服务，而特斯拉则聚焦于人工智能的实体化应用，致力于推广自动驾驶汽车和机器人管家等未来愿景。
“问题不在于谁投入更多，而在于投入是否推动公司迈向它所承诺的未来。”卡罗巴尔公司的库尔希德表示。
问题在于，特斯拉的股价已经提前透支了未来预期。根据未来12个月约163倍的市盈率，特斯拉不仅是标普500指数中第二昂贵的成分股，更是"美股七巨头"中估值最高的企业——紧随其后的苹果公司远期市盈率仅为34倍左右。相比之下，截至周一收盘，标普500指数的整体市盈率约为20倍。
特斯拉预计第二季度净利润为12亿美元，同比增长2.7%，营收达260亿美元，较去年同期增长17%。然而，电动汽车行业的整体环境仍不明朗。尽管该公司第二季度汽车交付量表现亮眼，但投资者却选择抛售股票套现，导致其股价在7月2日暴跌7.5%，创下一年来最大单日跌幅。
科技研究公司New Constructs的首席执行官戴维·特雷纳表示："我认为，现在对特斯拉的信任理由比以往任何时候都要少得多。其核心业务正在一个资本极其密集的领域与那些已经盈利且愿意承受亏损的超级企业展开竞争。"
自埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）的另一家公司太空探索技术公司（Space Exploration Technologies Corp.，简称SpaceX）上月上市以来，特斯拉兑现承诺的压力进一步加剧。若特斯拉的盈利未能达到市场的高预期，SpaceX殖民火星和运营轨道数据中心的宏大计划，可能会对马斯克的拥趸们更具吸引力。SpaceX定于8月4日公布其业绩报告。
基于两家公司现有的关联点——从马斯克（Elon Musk）的共同所有权，到特斯拉对现属SpaceX的xAI的持股，再到双方合作的Terafab芯片制造合资企业——有关两家公司合并的猜测已经开始甚嚣尘上。SpaceX对人工智能怀有远大抱负，目前正忙于通过其具有里程碑意义的750亿美元首次公开募股（IPO）和随后的250亿美元债券发行筹集资金。
因此，特斯拉在机器人和自动驾驶出租车领域的执行力，或将决定其未来能否保持独立地位。
富兰克林坦伯顿投资解决方案公司的马克斯·高克曼表示，一家公开上市的特斯拉将迫使SpaceX“制定更紧迫的时间表并交付实际成果”。他认为：“投资者不会像之前没有明确途径参与埃隆·马斯克火星计划时那样，对延期交付或空头承诺保持耐心。”
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2026年彭博有限合伙企业
